Indicators show the psychological importance of the $20,000 level for Bitcoin. Long-term hodlers have increased their stockpiles, and whale activity is at an 18-month low.

There were two record-breaking Bitcoin handovers by volume in 2022 as some threw in the towel. Сперва 540 тыс. First, 540,000 BTC switched owners in one day due to the UST stablecoin losing its peg to the US dollar. The stablecoin's capitalisation peaked at $19 billion, and LUNA, the Terra project's internal coin, rocketed to $41 billion. 

The second big event that saw some call it quits occurred when the price reached $20,000 and institutional investors initiated a record-high outflow from crypto funds of $188 million in June. 

The storm was followed by calm, and whales became apathetic. In the chart below, the latest spikes also relate to UST's collapse and Bitcoin reaching $20,000, after which activity among the crypto world's biggest names faded away. Traditionally, except for cases of force majeure, whales ramp up activity as price rises, trying to sell the maximum amount of coins at the market's peak.

At the same time, hodlers are showing phenomenal stamina, as 80% of the total funds remained untouched for at least the past three months. 

Their resilience is close to that of previous price dips, once again hinting at a stage when a bottom is being formed. Whales and smaller participants are not so active right now, and speculators have switched to a wait-and-see position. 

However, the macroeconomic environment remains tense, and the US Federal Reserve is close to raising its key interest rate by a record 1%, the highest single hike since 1981. The Fed's next planned meeting is on 27 July. We covered the extent of the US Fed's influence on the markets last week.

StormGain Analysis Team

(crypto trading, exchange and storage platform)