The market has barely digested the negative from the sale of 50,000 BTC by the German government, a new BTC attack is coming due to the return of 142,000 BTC to  former clients of the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt.Gox. A number of analysts believe that 99% of the coins will be immediately sold, and Bitcoin will dip below $50,000.

The concerns are related to the fact that Bitcoin has grown 130 times, and even taking into account losses from hacker attacks, every $100 in client funds increased from $100 to $3,300. "Victims" will be very tempted to cash out, and the ability of Bitcoin to resist new pressure will depend on the speed of sale.

However, not all coins from Mt.Gox will be distributed in July: 25% of customers refused an accelerated payment with a 10% deduction (through the court they will seek 100% reimbursement), and the two largest funds (which together will receive 30,000 BTC) announced their intention to postpone the sale. Thus, the pressure from Mt.Gox this year will not exceed 75,000 BTC or $5 billion.

According to research firm Arkham Intelligence, $3 billion of it has already been transferred to Kraken. Former Mt.Gox clients who registered on the crypto exchange received letters notifying them that the funds would be distributed in the next 7-14 days.

The dynamics of Bitcoin will depend on the speed with which the victims will get rid of the coins. For example, in the case of a release of 45,000 BTC in a day, analysts from CoinShares predict a price drop of 19% (to $53,000 from current levels). 

But if the same volume is received gradually during a period longer than 30 days, it will be virtually unnoticed by the market. This is due to both a significant turnover of the spot market, on average exceeding $1.5 trillion per month, and growing external demand. For example, exchange-traded crypto funds alone bought $1.4 billion worth of coins last week, smoothing out the negative reaction of the German government's to Bitcoin sale.

It is difficult to predict exactly how the former clients of Mt.Gox will act. But in any case, the negative effect will be short-term.

StormGain Analytical Group 
(platform for trading, exchanging and storing cryptocurrency)

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