Bitcoin faces a potential supply shock
Due to the influx of new investors and the unwillingness of hodlers to part with their coins, it's becoming increasingly harder to find available Bitcoin. Currently, 68.8% of coins from the circulating supply have remained idle in wallets for over a year, while 57.1% have stayed idle for over two years.
The deficit will soon become even worse as short-term holders (STH) who were lucky enough to buy coins earlier this year reduced reserves to 2.4 million BTC. This group is prone to emotional swings when their rise in unrecorded profits and the risk of a potential correction from a significant price level push them to sell their coins. However, if the cryptocurrency continues to strengthen, STH will resume buying coins amid FOMO (fear of missing out on lost profits).
Long-term holders (LTH), on the other end, are buying Bitcoin up this year. They've taken their reserves to 14.9 million BTC. Hodlers are currently withdrawing coins from the market at a speed of 26,100 BTC a month.
If we talk about sentiment broken down by wallet volume, we can see that there is an active coin accumulation taking place, with coins going from shrimps (<1 BTC) to whales (<1,000 BTC).
This all indicates that most market participants are confident about Bitcoin's future growth.
Interest is fuelled by the potential launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, the arrival of which would allow trillions of dollars of institutional capital to use the cryptocurrency as an investment asset.
Julia Leung, Chief Executive Officer of the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong, recently told Bloomberg that retail investors' access to spot Bitcoin ETFs is being considered. According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, such a move would create "terrific competition" and force the SEC to take more action.
Given the decline in the liquid supply of Bitcoin caused by hodlers and the upcoming halving event, the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in the US will create a supply shock, and the deficit will result in a significant price increase.
StormGain Analytical Group
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