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BTC On-Chain Analysis | ETH, ADA, QTM, ETC Ideas

25 May, 2021 Martin Petkov
bitcoin on-chain analysis

Hello and welcome, everyone. It's Martin here with CryptoGains. Let's begin by contextualising the massive event that we witnessed last week based on on-chain data from Glassnode. Last Wednesday witnessed the biggest daily capitulation with total realised losses for the day — that's Wednesday of last week — totalling $4.5 billion, and the total for the week was $14.2 billion.

As you can see on that chart, that was the biggest day of realised losses ever recorded in the history of Bitcoin trading, eclipsing both January and February 2018, as well as the March 2020 sell-offs. What is also interesting to observe is that the net daily losses, that's losses versus gains, on the day also reached a historical high, almost twice as large as the one that we witnessed in March 2020 with net daily losses of $2.56 billion.

As you can see, that was definitely something huge, not something that happens often in history and not something that is likely to happen in the near future, although we can never know. Moving to some of the other insights for analysis, this is what many term the FUDBath of 2021. FUD, of course, stands for 'fear, uncertainty and doubt'. It also reached the per cent of entities in profit to the critical level of 76%, which is acting as a very good support. And, usually, this percentage tends to bounce up once again and resume in the uptrend.

Now, we can see that this is the first time that it's touching that level, and it's quite likely that it's going to rebound once again before breaching down below it in a more decisive manner. So, this doesn't necessarily mean that the bull run is over, but it's definitely something significant to keep an eye on.

Next, we'll move into the net unrealised profit and loss, which touched the level of 0.5 for the first time in this current bull run. As you can see, it's only happened for the first time in 2021. It happened four times in 2017, three times in 2013, indicating that probably there is more steam behind the current bull run in Bitcoin.

Now let's take a look at what miners are doing. From early May, we witnessed a very significant increase in miner distribution as indicated by this steep increase in the amount of Bitcoin that miners are sending to exchanges, potentially preparing to sell it. But, altogether, we can see that they were still net-accumulating Bitcoin, although at a slower pace, even as prices were tumbling from about $60,000 to below $40,000. So this is what the on-chain data can tell us, but now let's move to a technical chart and see how we can actually trade these ideas.

For Bitcoin, the critical level to look at is $38,500. Above that level, we have good opportunities to buy Bitcoin, with targets at $39,000 and $39,900, where we have very strong resistance. Conversely, below $38,500, it's quite likely that we may see declines, taking us down to the nearest support at $37,300 and then even lower to $36,000.

Now let's move to Ethereum. The pivotal point for Ethereum is at $2590. Above that level, good opportunities to buy Ethereum, with targets at $2675 and $2740. Conversely, below $2590, there are good opportunities to sell Ethereum, with targets at $2530 and $2200.

And now, let's move to Cardano. For Cardano, I'm looking for prices to break above $1.575 to initiate long positions with targets at $1.62 and $1.70. Conversely, below $1.575, I'm looking to sell Cardano, with targets at $1.50 and $1.42, which is the longer-term support area.

And the final two ideas come from two strong performers. The first one is QTUM. After dipping to as low as $6, QTUM recovered strongly, and I'm looking for a break above $12 to initiate long positions, with targets at $14, and then $16.50, which $14 is the nearest resistance, and $16.50 is longer-term support at higher levels. Conversely, below $12, selling QTUM, with targets at $11 and $9.50. 

And, finally, the final idea is from Ethereum Classic. Ethereum Classic also witnessed a very strong recovery. Above $78, good opportunities to buy Ethereum Classic, with targets at $87 and $94. Conversely, below $78, the bears are likely to prevail, with targets on the short side at $71.50 and $86.50.

So these are all the ideas for today. Keep learning with the video education section and the CryptoGains Market Insight subsection. And remember to join our Crypto Signals Made Easy channel for lots of insightful articles and trading ideas. Very importantly, don't forget that on Thursday, that's in two days, at 7 pm UK time/8 pm Central European Time, I'm hosting a crypto webinar. We have over 12,000 people registered so far. It's going to be very oversubscribed. Make sure you booked your spot because spots are going to be limited. Thanks for joining me today. Trade wisely, and I'll see you soon.


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