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On-chain Analysis: BTC Hashrate Plummets, Power Outage in China?

20 Apr, 2021 Martin Petkov
On-chain Analysis

Hello and welcome, everyone. It's Martin here with CryptoGains. Today, we're going to discuss the recent drop in Bitcoin from three different angles, based on data provided from Glassnode.

First of all, one of the narratives around the correction in Bitcoin is around the substantial drop in hashrate that we experienced, which was largely attributed to a power outage in China. As we can see, we started experiencing substantial decline in the hashrate starting on 16 April, reaching a low on 18 April. And this is just around the time when Bitcoin started correcting very deeply. And that correction started normalising as soon as the hashrate started normalising, as well. 

In addition to that, over the weekend, the Open Interest in Futures Contracts in Bitcoin had reached a new all-time high at $27.4 billion. And whenever we have excess leverage in the system, it's quite possible to experience such substantial drops. And this is exactly what happened as the market flushed all that excess leverage, with $1.847 billion in contracts liquidated in a matter of hours. And this is almost twice as big as the previous all-time high of liquidations, which we experienced on 22 February.

Also, it's interesting to observe how the short-term holders are behaving. And we can see that the Spent Output Profit Ratio reset the 0.985 level, which suggested some losses were taken. But as you can see, whenever that ratio tests the level of 1, this is usually when the correction is over, and the uptrend in the Bitcoin cryptocurrency resumes.

Finally, what's interesting to observe is that some of the long-term holders based on the same ratio have been taking profit in the $50,000 to $60,000 range. But, now, this has normalised, with that recent dip suggesting that they're becoming calmer and more confident with the price of Bitcoin at the moment as it is. So let's take a look at the charts and see how you can trade on these insights.

Beginning with the one-hour chart, we can see that $54,800 has formed itself is a critical level. I'll be waiting for a break above that level to initiate long positions with a target at $55,400. And then the next level is going to be $56,200. Conversely, below $54,800, I'm seeing the downside prevailing, with targets at $54,400 and $53,400.

Next, let's move to Ethereum. On the one-hour chart of Ethereum versus Stellar, we can see that the MACD is just above the former bullish signal, with the blue line crossing above the red signalling line. The Relative Strength Index is recovering nicely. And what we're aiming for here is a recovery above 50. So to me, the pivotal point is $2125. Above that level, initiating long positions, with the first target at $2150 and then $2210. Conversely, below $2125, short positions with targets at $2080 and $2056.

Next, let's take a look at Ripple. After almost reaching the level of $2, Ripple is now creating gains. As we can see, the chart has been very volatile. Personally, I'm seeing $1.27 as the pivotal point, and I'll be waiting for a break above that level before initiating long positions, with targets at $1.32 and $1.38. Conversely, below $1.27, I'm looking to sell Ripple, with a target at $1.18.

And finally, let's take a look at one of the best performers over the last few days. That's Dogecoin. Looking at the one-hour chart of Dogecoin, above $0.40, I'm looking to initiate long positions, with targets at $0.425 and then, near the all-time high, the next target at $0.46. Conversely, below $0.40, declines are likely, with the first target at $0.385 and then $0.35.

Thanks for joining me today. Keep learning with the video education section in the CryptoGains marketing site subsection. And, of course, remember to join the Crypto Signals Made Easy channel for lots of insightful articles and trading ideas. Thanks for joining me today. Trade wisely, and I'll see you soon.

Bye-bye.

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