How Far Will Bitcoin Go Up? Analysts Point To $100K

Bitcoin (BTC) has been enjoying a recent upward trajectory that may propel the cryptocurrency up by 10% from its current levels, thanks to a series of bullish trends. Several analysts have been casting optimistic projections, with some even pointing upwards of $100K. Let's take a look at what the near future might hold for the world's first cryptocurrency.

Targeting the next resistance level

According to Katie Stockton, the founder of Fairlead Strategies, the next significant resistance level for Bitcoin is approximately $42,200.

Despite a challenging 2022, Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable surge of 132% year-to-date in 2023. Stockton anticipates further potential gains, projecting a 10% increase that would bring Bitcoin to the $42,200 resistance level. After a period of lateral consolidation in recent weeks, the cryptocurrency appears poised to approach this critical level.

In a note to clients on Monday, Stockton highlighted the pivotal role of surpassing the $38,000 mark in triggering a resolution to Bitcoin's consolidation phase, setting the stage for a test of the $42,200 resistance level. According to the note, if Bitcoin could conclusively close above the $42,200 resistance level for two consecutive weeks, it would generate a more long-term bullish signal for continued price appreciation. A breakthrough above $42,200 would signify a confirmed long-term bullish reversal.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin demonstrated strength by surging over 3%, surpassing the $38,000 threshold and reaching an intraday high of nearly $38,300, levels not seen since May 2022 when the cryptocurrency was in a downward spiral.

Stockton emphasised the presence of bullish technical signals in the medium term, which she took as good indications of the likelihood of further gains over the next few weeks. Despite recent consolidation, intermediate-term trend-following indicators align with a bullish bias.

In the interim, Stockton identified initial support for Bitcoin at its ascending 50-day moving average, situated around $33,900. This support level underscores the technical foundation for potential further upside.

BTC to $100K before 2024?

The positive sentiment towards Bitcoin extends beyond Stockton, with financial institution Standard Chartered expressing optimism about the cryptocurrency's future. They anticipate a significant surge, suggesting Bitcoin could more than double from current levels to reach $100,000 by 2024, citing the emergence of a "crypto spring."

Standard Chartered Bank reaffirms its earlier prediction that Bitcoin is on course to reach $100,000 by the close of 2024, with an anticipated catalyst being the approval of US-based spot bitcoin ETFs, potentially arriving sooner than initially anticipated.

Geoff Kendrick and the bank's team assert that the approvals of multiple spot bitcoin ETFs in the US, expected in Q1 2024 for both BTC and ETH, could mark a significant turning point, driving institutional investment in these cryptocurrencies to even higher levels.

The team highlights the upcoming Bitcoin 'halving', which is scheduled for late April 2024, as an additional factor contributing to BTC's potential upward price movement. Bitcoin's halving mechanism, designed to restrict supply, should also increase the price of Bitcoin according to basic economic principles. If the rollout of spot crypto ETFs drives mainstream demand for BTC as predicted, then the halving happening at around the same time should have a significant impact on prices.

Standard Chartered initially made its $100,000 forecast in April, emphasising Bitcoin's role as a recognised safe haven. In the bank's view, current market dynamics align with their expectations, noting that BTC's dominance has strengthened, accounting for 50% of the overall digital assets market cap, up from 45% in April.

In fact, the bank has revised its prediction to highlight the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 milestone even before the year's end, citing increased potential for price appreciation due to the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs. 

BTC spot ETF when?

As of the time of writing (30 November 2023), there are currently 13 applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to register spot Bitcoin ETFs, including applications from finance heavyweights such as BlackRock, ARK Invest, Grayscale, and most recently, Swiss asset manager Pando Asset.

According to Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, 10 January is the most likely date for the simultaneous approval of all spot Bitcoin ETFs. This date aligns with the SEC's deadline to either deny or approve ARK Invest's application. One indication of progress being made is a recent meeting the SEC held with BlackRock and Invesco executives on Tuesday to discuss and revise their ETF bids.

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