27.06.22 - 04.07.22
Last week results
Instruments:
The market is seeing record count outflows from crypto exchanges. This signal has two potential interpretations. On the one hand, it could signify that the crypto market is close to a bottom. On the other hand, it could indicate that investors are losing faith in the cryprocurrency.
Several mining companies have run into difficulty when it comes to servicing loans for which the equipment they use to mine their Bitcoin acts as collateral. $4 billion worth of total debt is under threat of default. This means that liquidity-stretched mining companies could put further pressure on Bitcoin in Q3, unless mining profitability increases.
One good bit of news for Bitcoin was the news that major BTC investor MicroStrategy had purchased another 480 BTC at an average price of $20,817. This comes as the government of El Salvador also purchased $1.52 million worth of Bitcoin.
These week’s key events
The market is seeing record count outflows from crypto exchanges. This signal has two potential interpretations. On the one hand, it could signify that the crypto market is close to a bottom. On the other hand, it could indicate that investors are losing faith in the cryprocurrency.
Several mining companies have run into difficulty when it comes to servicing loans for which the equipment they use to mine their Bitcoin acts as collateral. $4 billion worth of total debt is under threat of default. This means that liquidity-stretched mining companies could put further pressure on Bitcoin in Q3, unless mining profitability increases.
One good bit of news for Bitcoin was the news that major BTC investor MicroStrategy had purchased another 480 BTC at an average price of $20,817. This comes as the government of El Salvador also purchased $1.52 million worth of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin takes a breather
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has been below $20,000 for 4 days now. This is a worrying sign. What's more, the cryprocurrency bas already closed weekly trading below its 200-day MA, which could be interpreted as a signal of future declines.
Here are 3 reasons to sell Bitcoin now:
● The total amount of assets under management by crypto funds has fallen to a February 2021 low. According to data from Coin Shares, total assets under management by crypto funds has fallen 59% from their November 2021 peak. The main reason for this is the general deterioration of the situation on the cryprocurrency market amid monetary tightening from the FED.
● Behavioural on-chain metrics suggest that the miners' capitulation will continue. According to the Hash Ribbon indicator, there is no reversal to this trend in sight. The previous miner capitulation began in mid-June. Historically, these periods last no longer than one month. As such, we most likely won't see this situation change until mid-July.
Fig. Likelihood of Bitcoin miner capitulation Source: Glassnode
● Technical analysis: Bitcoin consolidates below $20,000.00 mark. This means we can expect further movement to the $17,600 mark (local minimum of 18 June 2022). If this level is overcome, it could be wise to open short positions with a target of 13,000.00.
Seize this opportunity to open a trade at the right time.
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