Dogecoin (DOGE), the jokey Musk-favoured meme coin that just won't quit, may yet have its day in 2024—just not right now. While Dogecoin's current market value has retreated amid a broader correction in the cryptocurrency sector, analysis of historic trends predicts a comeback for the canine coin later this year.

Dogecoin: where are we now?

Dogecoin's price saw a decline on Monday as the entire crypto market experienced a significant adjustment. Notably, on 27 April, DOGE's price dropped by 4.82% to approximately $0.15, underperforming the overall crypto market, which saw a 2.25% decrease on the same day. Over the past month, the meme coin has experienced a steep decline of 38% from its recent peak of $0.229. At the time of writing on Monday, 29 April, Dogecoin was lingering with its tail between its legs at $0.14.

The downturn in Dogecoin's value is part of a larger trend in the crypto market that began following the release of the US gross domestic product (GDP) data on 25 April. The US economy's growth in the first quarter of 2024 was 1.6%, falling short of the expected 2.5%. Additionally, personal consumption expenditures rose by only 0.3% in March. These disappointing economic indicators have led swap traders to lower their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024, reducing the appeal of so-called 'risk assets', especially the lesser-known altcoins like Dogecoin.

Dogecoin's open interest also declined to $865.63 million on 27 April from its recent peak of $2.21 billion nearly a month ago. Additionally, the funding rate has dropped to 0.0063% per eight hours. These factors indicate a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market, with traders either adopting a cautious approach due to uncertainty about Dogecoin's future price movements or losing interest in trading Dogecoin with high leverage.

This downward price trajectory appears to be a continuation of a selling trend that began when the price encountered resistance from a descending trendline and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA). The descending trendline resistance has repeatedly hindered DOGE's upward movements over the past 30 days. Currently, the cryptocurrency is testing support from a multi-week ascending trendline, with a potential rebound likely to drive the price toward the descending trendline resistance at around $0.159 by the end of April.

Despite Dogecoin's poor performance over the last month, there's still hope for DOGE hodlers and buyers. Like many elements of the crypto market, it all comes down to how Bitcoin (BTC) affects the wider crypto world. Specifically, Dogecoin has had a historical pattern of reacting positively to the Bitcoin halving — not during the halving period itself, but around a half-year after.

Could Dogecoin surge again in November?

Despite recent declines in the prices of leading cryptocurrencies, retail investors shouldn't ignore them, as they present more accessible market opportunities compared to VC-backed tokens with lofty, fully diluted valuations.

While Dogecoin's price has seen a downturn in the past month, historical data suggests that it could initiate a rally toward new record highs approximately seven months after the Bitcoin halving.

The current price action of Dogecoin mirrors the behaviour seen in the previous post-halving cycle, hinting at the beginnings of a journey toward new peaks.

During the previous bull market, Dogecoin kicked off a rally in May 2020, approximately seven months following the 2020 Bitcoin halving event. This led to Dogecoin achieving its all-time high of $0.73 on 8 May 2021, precisely a year after the 2020 Bitcoin halving, despite its current position, which is 73% below its previous peak.

Should this historical pattern repeat itself, Dogecoin could potentially reach new all-time highs by April 2025. However, it's important to note that technical analysis struggles to fully capture the speculative nature of memecoins.

Analysis and emotion: find the balance with memecoins

The 7-month mark will surely be one to watch for DOGE, but traders planning for a rally also need to consider the particular aspects of meme coins. Dogecoin, Shiba Inu (SHIB), Pepe (PEPE), and similar coins are very much assets for crypto enthusiasts and insiders—the retail traders and fans who are more susceptible to influencers, trends, and hype than more mature cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which have more institutional backing.

As such, meme coin traders should keep up with crypto community activity on platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram groups to stay up to date on the market sentiment among retail traders. Memecoins can surge and fall dramatically based on greedy, risky moves. Although many meme coins come and go quickly, more established tokens like DOGE, SHIB, and Floki Inu (FLOKI) have demonstrated resilience and maintained significant valuations bolstered by communities consistently backing these assets. Because of these devoted followings, the dog-themed memecoins have more staying power than most, and traders should keep up with crypto community trends and influencer actions. For Dogecoin, in particular, the whims and opinions of the so-called 'Dogefather', Elon Musk, have proven influential in the past and likely will be so again.

Trade Dogecoin and more with the best conditions on StormGain

While many things could happen over the next seven months to shake up the cryptocurrency markets, it's still worth keeping an eye out for opportunities with Dogecoin and the rest of the pack, especially as we get closer to November. If you're interested in trading Dogecoin or similar altcoins in the crypto market, StormGain provides the best conditions for new and veteran traders alike.

Available on the web or as an easy-to-use smartphone app, StormGain is a valuable tool for navigating the dynamic crypto market, offering robust features, educational resources, and competitive rates. On the StormGain platform, you can take advantage of trading pairs like SHIB/USDT and DOGE/USDT, along with the unique opportunity to trade SHIB/DOGE against each other. Additionally, StormGain members enjoy exclusive benefits such as a free Bitcoin cloud miner that rewards users with the most valuable cryptocurrency as a passive income simply for staying active on the platform.

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